PACERS VS KNICKS, 12 PM

INDIANA

The Pacers were a contender until Danny Granger went down.  They seem to have used the Spurs' template for building their roster; rather than signing big-time free agents, they have drafted well and picked up the right kind of complementary role players.  Roy Hibbert is a monster, David West has been consistently good for years, and they have a lot of depth across the board.  The Knicks can beat this team, but they shouldn't take this game for granted.  This is a quintessential trap game - coming off two road wars and an early Sunday game.

The Knicks are the better team and Indiana is without its best player [Danny Granger], but after two exhausting efforts I am curious to see how New York plays today.  Things I am looking for include Woodson's personnel packages and how in-shape the Knicks are.  That being said, its important to remember that its early in the season and you don't want the core guys to play too many minutes too early on in the year.

KNICKS PERSONNEL

Indiana has a very deep roster stacked with grinders and are much tougher than their 4-6 record indicates.  The Pacers rank second in the league in rebounding and the Knicks are getting killed on the boards just about every game.  Melo can grab rebounds and is a tough, gritty player, but he's not a prototypical 4 and  its harder for him to box out bigger players.  With the way the Knicks are using Tyson Chandler on defense - blitzing and at the top of the paint - they could use another a real big to close out possessions by grabbing defensive rebounds.  Memphis hung around with the Knicks through the first-half before going on that run in 3rd quarter.  Indiana has similar personnel; David West and Tyler Hansborough have the ability to get some offensive rebounds and second-chance points, which is why Woodson should play Rasheed Wallace more today.  I like Woodson's starting 5 for now, but Woodson should play Rasheed 25-30 minutes off the bench.  His versatility (he's able to play the 3, 4, and 5 on offense) will be extremely valuable all season for two reasons:

• He can sub in for Tyson and the Knicks don't lose too much size on defense

• He can play the 3 when he, Tyson, and Melo are all on the floor.  This allows Melo to play the 3 or 4 on offense depending on the personnel match-ups.  

The more games I watch, the more I am starting to appreciate the veterans that Grunwald/Woodson recruited and the amount of versatility this roster has.  In games like today's, the Knicks can go big with Melo, Wallace, and Tyson.  If Camby can play, they sub him in for Wallace and Chandler at times so the Knicks can play a big line-up for 75% of the game, which is critical against a big team like Indiana.  Additionally, The deep perimeter rotation - Felton, Kidd, Brewer, Melo, Pablo, Smith, and Novak - are a very complementary group on offense and defense; Woodson can throw out a lot of different lineups depending on the personnel of their opponents and who needs rest.

SAME OLD KNICKS?

This is a trap game for the Knicks.  Here are the facts:

• In recent years, New York has tended to lose their focus after losses and things have spiraled out of control.  Last year, they weren't able to make any type of playoff run because they had two 6 game losing streaks in a shortened season and it screwed them into a bad seed in the playoffs.

• AGE: The Knicks have to be exhausted at this point, coming off back-to-back gritty games against great Western Conference opponents on the road.  One day off with an early game today isn't exactly what this team needs right now.  

• Rasheed and Camby haven't really had training camps to get into shape; although I expect these guys to be key role players for the Knicks this season, they are both in their mid-to-late 30s.  Its (a) going to take a while before they can contribute for 20-30 minutes each every game and (b) they will not be able to recover from back-to-back games with just a single day off.  I expect Rasheed to play big minutes today because the Knicks have another day off tomorrow, but I doubt Camby can be effective for more than 10 minutes at this point.  

• Melo has been playing lots of minutes and getting hammered on every play by the likes of DeJuan Blair and Zach Randolph.  He could use a little rest.  Felton has been playing a lot too and has been taking a beating when he goes to the rim (which has been extremely effective).  Woodson needs to manage minutes effectively because it is only the beginning of a long season.

• OFFENSE: The Knicks rely on two of the streakiest scorers in the league for too much of their offense.  I think Melo is playing great and needs to keep shooting the rock to get in a groove.  JR is an improved talent and has been great up until two night's ago; the guy can make tough shots but he has to learn that when he's not hot, the Knicks can't afford to let him shoot himself out of a slump.  If they don't incorporate the pick-and-roll with Felton and Tyson, the offense becomes stagnant  and these guys don't have any room to operate and are taking heavily contested shots.  I think Woodson knows this and will gameplan around getting Carmelo good match-ups and running the pick-and-roll with either Kidd or Felton and Tyson Chandler.  Chandler obviously needs to continue his role as the defensive focal point, but he needs to be more involved in the offense so the Knicks remain balanced.

As a result of these facts, GM Glen Grunwald and Coach Mike Woodson have stacked the roster with veteran depth.  They brought in glue guys like Kidd, Wallace, Camby and Thomas to give emotional players like Melo and Smith perspective.  A loss in Memphis - who has won 15 straight home games - isn't exactly an indication that NY is a "pretender". Here's an opportunity for the Knicks to prove they are elite.  Indiana was a better team than the Knicks last season and have size, which is something that the Knicks lack with Melo playing the 4.  Let's see what kind of effect that these old guys can have on the team from a mental point of view; I expect the Knicks to win today, as they should. 

HALFTIME: GRIZZLIES 54, KNICKS 49

WAR

This game has been a war thus far and I expect it to get even chippier as the game progresses.  Forget the techs on Smith, Bayless, and Gay.  The battle between the 4s and 5s  in the paint has been nasty all game.  Zach Randolph, who already has a double-double is crushing the Knicks with his second chance points.  The Knicks are shooting extremely well because they have a nice flow going on offense.  This game is going to the wire and I expect the level of intensity to increase as the game progresses.

2ND UNITS

Late in the 3rd and early in the 4th, I expect the Knicks second unit to hold their own against Memphis' bench.  This will be a critical juncture in the game.  No Knicks have logged too many minutes and only Rasheed and Kidd have 3 fouls, so the Knicks can use their deep rotation to gain some ground on Memphis or take the lead, depending how the beginning of the 3rd goes.

ENTER SANDMAN

If the Knicks can tie up the game by the time they bring in the closers [Kidd, Felton, Smith, Melo, and Chandler] with about 8 minutes left, I expect Kidd to manage the flow of the offense and find Melo and Smith in good shots.  So long as they can contain Randolph on the offensive glass, the Knicks have a great chance at pulling this one out.  

KNICKS AT GRIZZLIES, 9:30PM

KNICKS LOOK TO START 7-0

Memphis is for real.  The combination of Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, and ex-Knick Zach Randolph is a formidable trio.  They have depth up and down their bench.  The Knicks dominated the last 8 minutes of last night's game against a very good Spurs team and proved that (a) they have a chip on their shoulder & (b) they aren't afraid of adversity.  This will be another 48-minute battle where the Knicks can really make a statement.

BATTLE IN THE PAINT 
The Knicks biggest challenge will be rebounding and defending the pain tonight.  Knick fans should know that Z-Bo is an extremely crafty scorer and an excellent offensive rebounder.  Marc Gasol has more girth than his older brother and can rebound and score in the paint.  We all know Tyson Chandler isn't going to back down, but the lack of depth behind him is in question right now.  This game is going to come down to Rasheed, Camby, and Kurt Thomas's ability (along with Chandler) to keep control of the paint.  They are going to get pounded inside and I am curious to see how they hold up after an exhausting effort like last night's.

CARMELO TIME
I see Melo having a huge game tonight scoring the ball.  Despite being held under 10 points, I think he was extremely effective with "hockey-assists" and acting as a decoy last night.  Tony Allen may be the best defender in the NBA outside of LeBron and Dwight Howard, but Melo's ability to get on a roll on offense is uncanny.  I'm going out on a limb and saying Melo is going to have one of those nights where nobody on this planet can stop him.

Melo's ability to score inside and out is going to pose a huge problem for the Grizz.  If they double and triple-team Melo like San Antonio did, the Knicks will start launching 3s and have the personnel to make Memphis pay.  If not, I expect Melo to have a huge game.

4TH QUARTER
I expect this game to come down to the wire, similar to last night's game and the previous game in Orlando.  The difference between this year and last is that we have Jason Kidd.  The Knicks were successful in the 4th quarter last year at times because Melo has the ability to take over games.

However, this year is different. With Felton playing off the ball at times, Jason Kidd can maintain the team's composure by slowing it down and spreading the ball around.  With Chandler in the middle, either Novak or Smith looking for a 3,and Melo drawing double teams, the Knicks can really do some damage in the slow half-court pace that is set at the end of these close, playoff-type games.

KNICKS BEAT SPURS WITH HUGE 4TH QUARTER

11/15/2012 - KNICKS 104, SPURS 100

CLOSERS 
The Knicks have won the last 3 games by closing out games with authority.  The Knicks held the Magic to 13 points in the final period on Tuesday.  They were even more impressive tonight; they outscored the Spurs by 8 and finished the game with a 22-11 run with huge 3-pointers by Jason Kidd and JR Smith and a tremendous effort by Ray Felton overall.

BALANCE 
New York used Melo, who was drawing double and triple teams all night, as a decoy. Contributions from Brewer and Wallace in the first half, Kidd in the 4th, and Felton and JR Smith for pockets throughout the game.  The Knicks had 7 players with 9 points and 8 players that went at least 15 minutes.  Felton was brilliant on offense at times.  Jason Kidd hit two huge 3s back-to-back in the fourth quarter to cut the 12 point deficit in half.  JR Smith has proven to be a more consistent threat on offense; although he may take some awful shots (see late 3rd/early 4th), he has a knack for making tough shots and big shots.

SPURS 2.0
Glen Grunwald and Mike Woodson used the Spurs' model for building this year's roster.  Veteran depth and tough, smart, crafty scorers and defenders up and down the bench.  Even when Melo scores less than 10 points, the Knicks had an efficient offense.  They put Kidd in at the end of the game to manage the flow and keep everyone composed.  They put in Felton when they need a spark and know he can take Tony Parker off the dribble.  JR Smith gets big minutes because he can turn on the switch and score points in streaks. When Melo is the focal point of the defensive strategy like he was tonight, help defense breaks down and lanes open up for everyone else.  Kudos to Woodson for managing minutes effectively and to GM Grunwald for putting the right role players around Melo and Chandler.

WHAT'S NEXT
Showdown in Memphis
Memphis is a big, tough, talented team that are right behind the Spurs, Lakers, and Thunder in the West.  This will be a tough match-up in a rowdy environment and I am curious to see how physical the Knicks can be after an exhausting effort like tonight's.

KNICKS AT SPURS, 8:30PM

The 5-0 Knicks have a tough task at hand tonight, matching up against an angry San Antonio Spurs team coming off a loss to the Lakers.  San Antonio had the best record in the NBA last year and is off to a strong start this year, going 7-1 to open the season.

After Tuesday's game, Mike Woodson once again praised the Spurs.  Grunwald & Woody respect San Antonio, the evidence being the make-up of the Knick's roster.  San Antonio has always been a deep, veteran-laden team that plays good defense.  That's exactly the vision Knick's management has for this year's squad.

Tonight and tomorrow's game (@ Memphis) will give us a good indication of how legit this Knicks team is.

BOOMER & CARTON

Its an awful experience being a Jets fan:

http://turnonthejets.com/2012/11/turn-on-the-jets-boomer-and-carton-wfan

That's me on Boomer & Carton.   Carton's a dick.  Most Jets bloggers are homers or pessimists.  Jet's suck.




Knicks, however.... read below....

BUILDING A CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDER

KNICKS START 5-0 FOR the 3RD TIME IN FRANCHISE HISTORY, BEAT ORLANDO BY 10

GLEN GRUNWALD/MIKE WOODSON - Building a TEAM
5 games is too small of a sample size to get crazy, but it looks like Glen Grunwald and Mike Woodson knows what they are doing.  Here are 5 reasons the Knicks roster will allow this team to make some noise in the playoffs this season.

1) INTERIOR DEFENSE. Tyson is the reigning DPOY and second best interior defender in the league (Dwight Howard).  However, if the Knicks plan to keep him healthy and effective all year, he will have to play 25-28 minutes a game.  Once Rasheed and Camby are in shape and can run up and down the floor for extended minutes, the Knicks defense will be tough to grind down in the paint even with Tyson on the bench.  These 3 players are accountable, and with Mike Woodson's direction, will make sure the other interior defenders (Melo/Amare) stay consistent for 48 minutes.  

2) PERIMETER PLAY.  Brewer, Melo, Felton, Kidd, Smith, and Pablo are very versatile in regard to the different backcourt and wing match-ups the Knicks will need to defend across the league.  Throw Shumpert into the mix and the Knicks can really match up against any offensive juggernaut in this league with their depth and versatility.  Furthermore, this group of 5 or 6 guys (NOVAK) that can knock down 3s, not including Melo, which will stretch defenses and allow Melo to have room to utilize his skill set.

3) PG ROTATION.  Prigioni is playing better than anyone expected.  He's a savvy vet that plays sneaky defense, doesn't turn the ball over, and may even be able to knock down an open jumper.  Ray Felton is a field general that will give the Knicks every ounce of energy he can muster.  He can run the pick and roll, shoot the ball at times, and keep the offense flowing in a way Jeremy Lin never could.  He defers to Carmelo but is not afraid to take shots at the right time, and has the respect of every member of this veteran locker room. Jason Kidd knows how to win games down the stretch and keep the ball moving.  The best 5 on the floor at the end of game includes both Felton and Kidd. The intangibles that Kidd brings at the end of the game seemed to keep Melo and the rest of the team confident in their offensive system.  His contribution does not show up on the stat sheet, but will prove to be invaluable to the Knicks all season long.  

4) OFFENSIVE STRATEGY.
-Melo can score more effectively than anyone else in the league in spurts.  He had 5 points on two possessions that essentially allowed the Knicks to control the flow of the game.  The scary thing is he can sustain that type of production for 10-15 minutes at a time (see 2012 Olympics).  The Knicks can have a great flow on offense and defense, which is due to the savvy veteran presence across the board.  This bodes well for them in big games because teams play defense the entire way through and these vets will allow Melo to focus on the prize.  When he got T-ed up, he was arguing a bad call that warranted some questioning.  In previous years, Melo would lose focus or use the anger as motivation.  Leaders like Rasheed Wallace, Jason Kidd, Tyson Chandler, etc. will keep Melo in the zone that the Knicks need to win big.  When Melo is hot, he can score with ANYBODY in the NBA and that's exactly what the Knicks need in tight games down the stretch.

-JR Smith is extremely streaky on offense.  IF JR was off tonight, the Knicks would have fallen behind in the 2nd and 3rd quarter after the initial surge in the first half.  I love his intensity on D, but he will go 1-12 at some point.  He's a great young player that should be a big part of the Knicks DEEP rotation for the next few years (until he becomes too expensive for the Knicks' cap).  However, the fact remains that if the Knicks want to win when Melo and JR are both off, they will need to find another way to score points.

-For the majority of the first three quarters of tonight’s game, the Knicks offense was having trouble keeping up with Orlando's hustle.   The Knicks have 9 guys that would start on the Magic, not including STAT and Shumpert.  JR Smith carried the Knicks before passing the baton to Carmelo in the 4th quarter.  If the Knicks want to contend for the 1 or 2 seed and home-court advantage in the playoffs, they need a consistent identity on offense.  This should essentially be running the pick-and-roll with Felton and Chandler.   Bottom line, if the Knicks can run the pick-and-roll with Felton and Chandler (and Amare when he comes back), defenses will have to choose between Melo operating in isolation or leaving the Knicks 3 point shooters open.  Glen Grunwald has done a great job of stacking the Knicks bench with shooters like Novak, Kidd, Rasheed (it will come), and more.

5) R E S P E C T.
-The difference between this year and last year is that this team's locker room does not have a polarizing figure like Jeremy Lin at the center.  These savvy veteran components of the Knick's locker room is not focused on next year's contract as much as they are on tonight's game.  Melo trusts the group of veterans that serve as the team's role players, which benefits them in two crucial ways.

-On the floor, Melo has faith that people will be in the right place and he will get the ball enough; therefore he will be able to isolate his focus on getting into a scoring groove and grinding down defenses with his extremely unique skill-set on offense.  Melo can score in more ways than anyone in the league because he's a fairly consistent shooter, can grind in the post, and uses the combination to draw fouls with a variety of head and body fakes that nobody else in the league has in their repertoire.

-Off the floor, the other veterans (Tyson Chandler, Jason Kidd, Rasheed Wallace, Raymond Felton, Marcus Camby, etc) can teach the younger players (Iman Shumpert and JR Smith in particular) how to act as professionals and stay consistent in practice all year long.  Carmelo will be a key component of this leadership group, but the fact of the matter is that this team has a number of leaders that will keep everyone in check.


REASONS TO MANAGE EXPECTATIONS
-Boston, Philly and Brooklyn.  Although they may not be as deep as the Knicks, Boston's first 7 players in their rotation are as good as any in the East.  Despite two convincing victories so far, the 76ers are factors and the Knicks are not miles ahead of them.  The Nets will take a bit of time to reach their potential, but once they put it together they will be a force.  The Atlantic division is stacked.

-Miami is the clear cut best team in the East and it is not possible to argue anything else until they get knocked off in the playoffs

-Chicago will be great again if Rose comes back. Big IF

-Western Conference is incredible.  OKC, LA, and the Spurs are elite; the Knicks are currently not in their class


THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
-How is Amare going to fit into the equation?  His ego will have to be managed but he can be extremely effective running the pick and roll with Felton and is solid mid-range shooter.  As this situation develops, Mike Woodson will have to devise some sort of plan to keep him happy.  That being said, his happiness should not decrease the efficiency of their offense as a whole.


UP NEXT
Thursday and Friday the Knicks are in San Antonio and Memphis, who are not comparable to Orlando. If the Knicks play like they did for the first 3 quarters of tonight’s game at all, they will get smacked.  To take an even higher-level view, we can't really tell how good the Knicks will be for another 15 or 20 games.  However, this is 6 game run coming up is a litmus test for a 5-0 Knicks team; 5 games on the road and 4 or 5 of the teams have the ability to make noise in the playoffs.